Trump is undeniably going through a lot lately. The period to forget for him reached a culminating point on Tuesday when a federal appeals court rejected Donald Trump’s claim that he is immune from criminal prosecution on charges that he plotted to overturn the 2020 election results because they involved actions he took while president. But this is just part of what he has been going through lately.
The positive
Trump is currently destroying his only remaining serious challenger in the presidential race, Nikki Haley, with numerous polls showing a superior lead against her. Trump’s presidential bid so far is almost perfect. After winning Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump is slated to win Nevada on Thursday in what appears to be his third consecutive win.
The negative
Trump and Republicans have been facing serious struggles recently. The Texas border crisis unites Republican governors, but the support from other states might not be enough for Texas to properly secure the border and prevent the influx of migrants. But Trump also struggles to get support from key organizations in his bid to beat President Biden in a very likely rematch this coming November.
Biden strikes a deal with United Auto Workers Union
The United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain has recently publicly endorsed U.S. President Joe Biden in what appears to be a critical step in his reelection bid since he is trying to win the support of working-class Americans. The president behind the 400,000-member union explained his decision, citing Biden’s commitment to helping American workers, especially noting Biden’s support during the UAW’s strike last fall, which is evidence of Biden’s priorities.
This means that Trump has just lowered his chances of winning a key swing state—Michigan—despite efforts to win the support of Michigan voters. This led to a series of incidents and direct attacks between Trump and the United Auto Workers President, Shawn Fain.
“Get rid of this dope & vote for DJT. I will bring the Automobile Industry back to our Country,” reads part of Trump’s post on Truth Social.
The bipartisan border agreement failure
Senate negotiators recently revealed a comprehensive 370-page national security bill, which came after extensive negotiations and includes critical funding for Ukraine, Israel, and other foreign policy priorities. It also introduces significant amendments aimed at enhancing U.S.-Mexico border enforcement, such as improving asylum screening standards, expediting claim processing, ending “catch and release,” and granting the administration emergency powers to restrict migrant entry under specific conditions.
Additionally, the legislation aims to facilitate work authorization for migrants and address the backlog in immigration courts.
However, the bill has encountered substantial resistance from both progressives and allies of former President Trump, with House Republican leaders declaring it would not pass in the lower chamber. Despite this opposition, the Senate is preparing for a procedural vote on the bill.
Trump has explicitly criticized the bipartisan agreement and targeted Senator James Lankford for his role in the negotiations. This growing GOP opposition suggests the Senate border deal, including its foreign aid components, faces significant hurdles and is likely to fail in an upcoming key vote.
This seems to be a defeat for Trump and his fellow Republicans. First, they failed to negotiate a bill that would fit their requirements, and second, but not less important, no federal help is going to Texas anytime soon.
Speaker Mike Johnson: Trump ‘is not calling the shots. I am calling the shots for the House.’
On Sunday, Speaker Mike Johnson made it clear that former President Trump wasn’t controlling the House’s decisions regarding a possible agreement on border issues.
During a chat on NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” Kristen Welker questioned if Trump was in charge, especially since Johnson kept saying any agreement on the border should match H.R. 2 — a strict conservative proposal unlikely to be approved by the president.
“Of course not. He’s not calling the shots. I am calling the shots for the House. That’s our responsibility. And I have been saying this far longer than President Trump has. I have been saying what the requirements are to fix the problem,” Johnson told Welker.
At least in public, this means that Trump is not as influential among Republicans as he used to be. The time will show if Johnson’s remarks were just a made-up public scenario because this is a setback for Trump in the middle of the presidential campaign.
Trump can’t use his presidential immunity in criminal cases against him
The biggest blow for Trump might be the Tuesday federal appeals court’s decision ruling that the former president can’t use his presidential immunity in criminal cases against him.
“We cannot accept former President Trump’s claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes that would neutralize the most fundamental check on executive power,” the unsigned but unanimous opinion from the three-judge panel said.
For some, this turn of events is a win for Trump. Although he didn’t manage to establish broad new powers for the presidency to act without limits, the initial date set for March 4 in D.C., has been erased from the court’s schedule. Plus, there’s no hint about when it might be back on the agenda.
This fits with the ex-president’s usual approach of slowing down the legal system whenever he can, as pointed out by Neama Rahmani, who used to work as a federal prosecutor.
“It’s in Trump’s interest to delay the case until after the November election,” Rahmani explained, as reported by the BBC. “If he wins control of the White House, a sitting president can’t be prosecuted.”
Other issues for Trump
Allen H. Weisselberg, a key figure in Donald J. Trump’s business empire, is in talks with prosecutors to strike a plea deal that would have him admit to perjury. This agreement involves confessing to lying during Trump’s civil fraud trial and in an interview with the NY Attorney General’s office.
Now, facing potential new charges, Weisselberg’s negotiations with prosecutors could influence other witnesses and impact the legal landscape surrounding Trump.
In a dramatic setback, House Republicans failed Tuesday to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, forcing them to shelve a high-profile priority—for now—after a few GOP lawmakers refused to go along with the party’s plan. This is another proof that Trump, who was a vocal supporter of Mayorkas’ impeachment, and Republicans fail to unite when they have to.
Upcoming events
Trump is now headed to Nevada, where he has a guaranteed win on Thursday. Due to Nevada’s unique voting system, which was born after a court decision a few years ago, there are primaries and Republican caucus in the state. For Republicans, valid is only the caucus on Thursday, in which Trump is the only name on the ballot.